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Key Takeaways

  • User stories follow the format: 'As a [user], I want [feature] so that [benefit]' to capture requirements from the user's perspective
  • Story points measure relative complexity, effort, and uncertainty -- not hours or days
  • The Fibonacci sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) is commonly used for story point estimation
  • Velocity is the number of story points a team completes per iteration, used for capacity planning
  • Planning Poker uses consensus-based estimation where all team members vote simultaneously
Last updated: January 2026

Agile Planning & Estimation

Agile estimation differs fundamentally from traditional approaches. Instead of predicting exact hours or costs, Agile teams estimate relative size and use empirical data to forecast delivery.

User Stories

User stories are short descriptions of functionality from the user's perspective. They capture who wants what and why.

User Story Format

As a [type of user],
I want [some feature],
So that [some benefit].

Example User Stories

StoryAnalysis
"As a customer, I want to save items to my cart so that I can purchase them later."Clear user, action, and benefit
"As an admin, I want to view usage reports so that I can track system performance."Specifies different user role
"As a mobile user, I want push notifications so that I stay informed on the go."Context-specific need

INVEST Criteria

Good user stories are:

CriterionDescription
IndependentCan be developed in any order
NegotiableDetails can be discussed
ValuableDelivers value to the user
EstimableTeam can estimate its size
SmallFits within an iteration
TestableHas clear acceptance criteria

Story Points

Story points are a unit of measure for estimating the relative size of user stories. They combine:

  • Complexity: How complicated is the work?
  • Effort: How much work is involved?
  • Uncertainty: How much is unknown?

Key Characteristics

AspectStory Points
UnitRelative, not absolute
ComparisonSized relative to reference stories
Team-specificDifferent teams have different scales
Not timeA "5" doesn't mean 5 hours

Why Not Hours?

Hours-Based EstimationStory Point Estimation
Creates false precisionAcknowledges uncertainty
Varies by personTeam consensus
Easy to gameFocuses on relative size
Stressful deadlinesEmpirical forecasting

The Fibonacci Sequence

Most teams use the Fibonacci sequence for story point values:

1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, (34, 55, ...)

Why Fibonacci?

ReasonExplanation
Natural progressionGaps increase with size
Acknowledges uncertaintyLarger stories have more unknowns
Forces decisionsCan't pick "between" numbers
Prevents false precisionNo difference between 14 and 15

Typical Scale Meanings

PointsTypical Interpretation
1Trivial change, very low risk
2Simple, well-understood
3Straightforward but some effort
5Moderate complexity
8Complex, some uncertainty
13Very complex, high uncertainty
21+Should probably be split

Planning Poker

Planning Poker is a consensus-based estimation technique where the whole team participates.

How Planning Poker Works

  1. Present the story: Product Owner describes the user story
  2. Discuss: Team asks clarifying questions
  3. Vote secretly: Each person selects a card with their estimate
  4. Reveal simultaneously: All cards shown at once
  5. Discuss differences: High and low voters explain their thinking
  6. Revote if needed: Repeat until consensus emerges
  7. Record: Final estimate is assigned

Benefits of Planning Poker

BenefitWhy It Matters
Diverse perspectivesEveryone's view counts
Prevents anchoringSimultaneous reveal avoids bias
Surfaces assumptionsDiscussion reveals hidden complexity
Team ownershipCollective estimates create commitment
Knowledge sharingLess experienced team members learn

Velocity

Velocity is the number of story points a team completes per iteration.

Calculating Velocity

Sprint 1: 23 points completed
Sprint 2: 27 points completed
Sprint 3: 25 points completed
Sprint 4: 24 points completed

Average Velocity = (23 + 27 + 25 + 24) / 4 = 25 points/sprint

Using Velocity

ApplicationHow
Sprint capacityPlan to take ~25 points next sprint
Release forecasting100 points remaining / 25 per sprint = ~4 sprints
Trend analysisIs velocity increasing, stable, or declining?

Velocity Warnings

  • Don't compare team velocities: Story points are team-specific
  • Don't pressure for higher velocity: Gaming estimates helps no one
  • Watch for volatility: Large swings indicate estimation problems
  • Use ranges: Forecast with a range (e.g., 23-27 points)

Release Planning

Release planning determines what can be delivered and when.

Release Planning Steps

  1. Prioritize the backlog: Rank by value, risk, dependencies
  2. Size the stories: Estimate in story points
  3. Determine velocity: Use historical average or estimate
  4. Calculate duration: Total points / velocity = iterations
  5. Set milestones: Identify key dates and deliverables

Example Release Plan

IterationStoriesPointsRunning Total
Sprint 1A, B, C2424
Sprint 2D, E, F2549
Sprint 3G, H2675
Sprint 4I, J, K25100

Release of 100 points in 4 sprints = 8 weeks (2-week sprints)

Iteration Planning

Iteration (Sprint) planning determines what will be done in the upcoming iteration.

Iteration Planning Process

StepActivity
Set capacityAccount for PTO, meetings, holidays
Review prioritiesProduct Owner presents top items
Select storiesTeam pulls stories up to capacity
Create tasksBreak stories into development tasks
Confirm commitmentTeam agrees on the Sprint Goal

Capacity Considerations

FactorImpact
Team availabilityVacations, holidays reduce capacity
Support dutiesBug fixes, maintenance take time
Technical debtMay reserve capacity for improvements
Team stabilityNew members reduce initial velocity

Other Estimation Techniques

TechniqueDescriptionUse Case
T-Shirt SizingS, M, L, XL categoriesHigh-level backlog grooming
Affinity EstimatingGroup similar-sized itemsLarge backlogs
Ideal DaysDays of focused workTeams uncomfortable with points
Wideband DelphiAnonymous estimates with discussionExpert groups

PMP Exam Tips

According to the PMI-ACP exam content outline, Agile Estimation includes:

  • Relative sizing and story points
  • Planning Poker
  • Affinity estimating
  • Wideband Delphi
  • Ideal time

Key concepts:

  • Story points measure relative size, not time
  • Velocity is used for forecasting, not performance evaluation
  • Planning Poker ensures team consensus
  • The Fibonacci sequence reflects increasing uncertainty

Key Takeaways

  • User stories capture requirements from the user's perspective
  • Story points measure relative size, complexity, and uncertainty
  • The Fibonacci sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) prevents false precision
  • Planning Poker uses simultaneous voting to prevent anchoring bias
  • Velocity is the empirical basis for forecasting delivery
  • Never compare velocity between teams or pressure teams to increase it
Fibonacci Sequence for Story Point Estimation
Test Your Knowledge

What do story points measure?

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Test Your Knowledge

Why do Agile teams commonly use the Fibonacci sequence for story point estimation?

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Test Your Knowledge

In Planning Poker, why do team members reveal their estimates simultaneously?

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7.7 Agile Metrics & Tools

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